Cal’s Hot Lines: NFL Week 3

September 27, 2020

We’ve started off a solid 7-3 through the first to weeks of the NFL season. Safe to say these lines are hot. Week 3 provides some enticing matchups. Here are the best bets:

SF(-4) @ NY Giants

49ers Backup Nick Mullens gets the start this week for against the New York Giants.

San Francisco stays in New York for it’s 2nd consecutive week, having played the Jets in week 2. This week it’s the Giants. Both teams fee victim to the injury bug last Sunday. The Giants lost Solomon Thomas and Nick Bosa to torn ACL’s . For the 49ers, Jimmy Garoppolo has an ankle sprain and starting RB Raheem Mostert has a MCL sprain.

The Giants injury news is far more significant as star RB Saquon Barkley was lost for the season to an ACL tear of his own. New York signed Devonta Freeman to replace Barkley but his contributions will be limited due to the immediate time period. The Giants dimensional offense and the running game, the one thing they are supposed to be good at, has struggled to get off the ground in these first 2 weeks. 

Long story, short despite the 49ers rash of injuries last week, this team is still more talented and better coached than the giants. 

PICK: SF (-4)

Dallas @ Seattle (-5)

Dallas played their worst half of football in week 2 immediately followed by their best half in a comeback win over the Falcons. Dallas is trying to become the first team to beat all the bird teams in a single season. Dak looked better and Zeke played well. McCarthy never let this team get in their own heads. It remains to be seen how long Dallas lets OC Kellen Moore call the plays. 

Meanwhile, Seattle looked strong grinding out a W in a high scoring affair against the Patriots in SNF. Russell Wilson is already making his case for MVP.  This offense roles through Wilson. He has made everyone better. Seattle is not Atlanta. They will take a lead and they will not relinquish it. This defense is not as strong as it used to be BUT they are good enough to keep Dallas at bay.

PICK: Seattle (-5)

Carolina @ LAC(-6.5)

Justin Herbert (10) made his first start for the Chargers in Week 2

The second best team in the AFC West is up for grabs this week as the Chargers host the Panthers. The Raiders will travel to New England to battle Cam Newton and the Patriots.

The Chargers looked like a different team with Justin Herbert. Los Angeles had higher energy, looked more explosive, and looked more dynamic. Despite some rookie mistakes, Herbert looked like the guy the right fit for the Chargers. Veteran QB Tyrod Taylor is still sidelined with a punctured lung in a freak mishap with the Chargers team doctor. Los Angeles came so close to beating the Kansas City Chiefs last week and I think it left a bad taste in their mouth. I don’t see them falling off of an emotional cliff this week.

Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers (0-2) are coming off a drubbing by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They will be without star Christian McCaffery who suffered a high ankle sprain that will sideline the running back for 4-6 weeks. With an offense dependent on the running game, this is not good news. The Panthers will be going up against a vaunted Chargers D-line, only making matters more difficult.

PICK: LAC (-6.5)

Green Bay @ New Orleans(-3):

The New Orleans Saints are coming off of a tough loss to the Las Vegas Raiders on MNF. While effective, Drew Brees showed his age in a game he was without star WR Michael Thomas. Thomas is set to come back in Week 3 and the hope is that offense will become more fluid again. It is a scary thought that the loss of one WR could render the Saints offense ineffective. Additionally, the Saints are not giving up yards but surrendering 28 points a game.

The Packers come into town absolutely rolling dispatching the Vikings and Lions with ease. Aaron Rodgers looks as comfortable and strong as we’ve seen him in a long time. The Packers offense is protecting Rodgers, running the ball effectively and putting the rock in the endzone. The defense still has trouble stopping the run so a matchup with Saints running back Alvin Kamara will be a good gauge on where they are with the rest of the league. At the end of the day, the Packers are the better team right now.

PICK: Green Bay (+3)

Houston @ Pittsburgh (-4)

The Houston Texans have struggled to get the offense rolling in the first 2 weeks of the season, culminating in a 0-2 record. DeShaun Watson has clearly missed having DeAndre Hopkins in the line up. Watson is tied for the 2nd most sacks at 8. That is only after Gardner Minshew was sacked 4 times in his loss to the Dolphins on TNF. The Texans defense has had a hard time stopping offenses. They are in the bottom third of the league in pressure, and are not creating turnovers.

All of this while the Pittsburgh Steelers come in as one of the best pass rushing defenses in the league. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has looked rusty but solid in 2 starts this season.  James Connor continues to struggle with his running responsibility as Benny Snell has earned a larger role. The Steelers offense has always thrived with a powerful running game. 

Although it is early in the season, it feels like these teams are trending in opposite directions. Watson is running for his life with little to throw to while Big Ben is getting stronger.

PICK: Pittsburgh (-4)