Hot Lines – NFL Week 5

September was a great month for the Hot Lines. We went 3-2 in Week 4 to round out the month’s total record to 14-6 against Vegas. The season enters its second month and everything is up for grabs. The weather is getting colder. COVID-19 is making its presence felt. The presidential election is right around the corner.

Bottom line, the only constant in the world right now is that the hot lines are hot. Bye weeks start in Week 5 for Green Bay and Detroit. Tennessee and New England may have byes due to team COVID outbreaks. The beat goes on and here’s the Week 5 Hot Lines:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers(-3.5) @ Chicago Bears

Thursday Night Football gives us the interesting matchup of the rising Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the defensive minded Chicago Bears. It is a Super Bowl 52 rematch between Tom Brady and Nick Foles. The Buccaneers are coming off a nail biter against the LA Chargers but have looked more consistent week after week. Brady is getting more comfortable with his personnel and surroundings. 

Both teams have standout defenses. This game will be determined by the team with the better offense. That will be the Buccaneers. Brady is starting to find his groove. Meanwhile, the Bears have benched Mitchell Trubisky in favor of Nick Foles. The Bears offense still looked anemic in an ugly loss to the Colts last week. With a 3-point line, I feel really comfortable taking the Bucs in this primetime matchup.

LA Chargers @ New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

Justin Herbert is still looking for his first win of his career in start number four against Drew Brees and the Saints. The Chargers have given the Buccaneers and Chiefs close games in the last two weeks. All of this is despite the injury bug plaguing the Chargers defense. Herbert has given this team a new level of energy and was given the starting job permanently this week.

Meanwhile, the Saints are simply not on the same level as the Buccaneers and Chiefs. A close victory over the Detroit Lions in Week 4 pushed this team to 3-1. The offense looked to be in sink against one of the worst defenses in the league. Despite the injuries, this Chargers defense will still be a tough challenge for New Orleans. That being said, the Saints will win this football game but not by more than touchdown. Gimme the Dog!

PICK: Chargers (+7.5)

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks (-7)

This game is the battle of bad defenses. Both are young and can’t stop the passing game. Russell Wilson has looked otherworldly through the first month of the season. Opening up the playbook has elevated the Seahawks offense to one of the best in the league. Everything flows through Wilson, who is an early MVP candidate. The Seahawks weakness has been its defense, which is weird to say given the success they’ve had the last seven to eight years.

The Vikings meanwhile have the fourth worst passing defense. Luckily, the Seahawks have the worst. The Vikings offense has the sixth best rushing attack. However, that is cancelled by the Seahawks ability to stop the run. Ultimately this game will come down to quarterback play. We can all agree that Russell Wilson is better than Kirk Cousins. 

PICK: Seahawks (-7)

Indianapolis Colts (-2) @ Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns are coming off a high scoring shootout vs the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4. This team ran the ball at will against Dallas. Cleveland entered the season with a new head coach. Implementing a new system without a preseason or offseason program showed in the first two weeks of the season. The Browns have found their identity as a ground and pound team. You could send a freight train through some of the holes created on Sunday.

The Colts meanwhile have been playing defense first football. Indianapolis currently sports the best defense in the league giving up only 12.25 points per game thus far. You have to look a little closer though. They have played the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets, and Bears. That doesn’t exactly scream murderer’s row. The Browns present the first real challenge to this Colts defense experiencing an injury bug at the moment. Cleveland wins a close one, gimme the Dog!

PICK: Browns (+2)

Arizona Cardinals (-7) @ New York Jets

This week in who gets to beat up on a New York Football team features the Arizona Cardinals taking on the New York Jets. To this point, the Jets have looked absolutely atrocious on every conceivable front. The o-line has allowed opposing defenses to criminally abuse QB Sam Darnold. Darnold is out with a shoulder injury meaning Joe Flacco gets the start for New York. 

Meanwhile, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are 2-2, trying to snap a two game losing streak. They started off strong, beating a healthy 49ers team. The Cardinals defense is top 10 quality. They will be licking their chops against the Jets. DeAndre Hopkins has adjusted well in Arizona and made the offense more dynamic and balanced. I believe the wise guys are being generous in this 7 pt. spread. 

PICK: Cardinals (-7)